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Nigel Farage’s Path to Power: Why 30% Could Be the Game-Changer for Reform UK

Nigel Farage could achieve the unthinkable—leading Reform UK into government—if he manages to boost the party’s national support to 30%, according to a leading pollster. Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, described Reform UK’s strong performance in the recent local elections as a “huge breakthrough” that has helped solidify its legitimacy in the public eye.

Hopkins noted that Farage doesn’t need to match the Conservatives or Labour in terms of total seats won. Instead, he can take advantage of the UK’s first-past-the-post voting system. “Mathematically, if Reform UK climbs above 30% while Labour and the Tories hover in the 20s, the system starts working in their favour,” he explained.

However, the margins remain tight. “If Reform sits at 25 or 26%, with Labour on 24 and the Tories on 22, it could still end up hurting Reform more than helping them,” Hopkins warned. The implication is clear: crossing the 30% threshold could be the tipping point that turns Farage from a political disruptor into a serious contender for No. 10.